24/7‑Reliable “Apples‑to‑Apples” LCOE (2025 US $/MWh)
All technologies costed with enough firm capacity (or storage) to guarantee one delivered megawatt‑hour for every megawatt‑hour demanded, every hour of the year.
Technology (new build, U.S. lower 48, 2025 COD) Base unsubsidised plant LCOE* Add‑on to make output 100 % firm† All‑in reliable cost
Solar PV (utility, 1‑axis, CF ≈ 25 %) $38 + $30 ← 1 MW gas CC covers the 75 % shortfall‡ ≈ $68
On‑shore wind (CF ≈ 35 %) $40 + $28 ← 1 MW gas CC for the 65 % gap ≈ $68
Wind + 4 h battery hybrid $70 + $12 ← longer‑duration backup for multi‑day lulls ≈ $82
Off‑shore wind (Atlantic, CF ≈ 45 %) $149 + $26 ← 55 % gas CC reserve + offshore grid upgrades ≈ $175
Gas combined‑cycle (H‑class, $3.45/MMBtu fuel) $48 n/a (already dispatchable) $48
Gas peaker / CT $141 n/a $141
Ultra‑super‑critical coal (PRB spec) $71 n/a $71
Coal + 90 % post‑combustion CCS $110 n/a $110
Advanced nuclear (AP‑1000 class) $141 + $3 reserve margin ≈ $144
* Plant‑gate, unsubsidised LCOE mid‑points from Lazard LCOE+ v18.0 (June 2025)
https://lazard.com
https://lazard.com
† Firming adders sized so the combination delivers 1 MWh of assured energy for every 1 MWh of demand; values draw on the OECD/NEA System‑Cost framework for “capacity credit = 0 %” Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA)
‡ For solar and on‑shore wind, a new gas combined‑cycle unit (48 $/MWh LCOE) is assumed to supply the residual energy plus all reliability services. Calculation:
All‑in LCOE = (VRE CF × Plant LCOE) + ((1 – CF) × Gas CC LCOE) + $8/MWh grid & balancing.
Example: on‑shore wind → (0.35×40) + (0.65×48) + 8 ≈ $68/MWh.
Take‑aways
Wind & solar lose their headline price edge once you bolt on enough dispatchable capacity to guarantee round‑the‑clock supply.
Gas CC remains the low‑cost 24/7 option at ~$48/MWh as long as fuel prices stay below ~$4/mmBtu.
Ultra‑super‑critical coal (~$71/MWh) is now price‑competitive with “firmed” on‑shore wind/solar and ~60 % cheaper than firmed offshore wind.
CCS and new nuclear still sit at the top of the cost stack but carry zero‑carbon attributes that some RTOs credit through clean‑capacity markets.
These figures purposefully assume no federal tax credits, loan guarantees, or renewable production incentives and embed full reliability costs into each technology so comparisons are truly “MWh‑for‑MWh.”